China’s “one couple, one child” family planning policy could leave more than 24 million men unable to find a bride by the end of the decade, a report says.
The country’s leading think-tank describes the gender imbalance among newborns as the most serious demographic problem facing China. The surplus of bachelors — known as “bare branches” — in the rural areas has been described by senior officials as a problem that could lead to a surge in crime and social instability, the ruling Communist Party’s greatest fear.
The report makes no bones about how the one-child policy — introduced to curb population growth and still in place in most circumstances — has led to a preference for boys. “Sex-specific abortions remained extremely commonplace, especially in rural areas,” the report, published by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said.
Officials acknowledged that the introduction of ultrasound scans in the 1980s resulted in a surge of abortions of female foetuses after parents tried to ensure that their only child was a boy who could carry on the family line. That tradition is important in a society where reverence of ancestors continues to underpin the social structure and where farmers want sons. “The problem is more serious in rural areas due to the lack of a social security system,” the report said. “Ageing farmers have to rely on their offspring.”
The normal birth ratio of 103-107 boys for every 100 girls began to shift in the 1980s. It rose from 108 boys in 1982 to 111 in 1990 and 116 a decade later. A report in the British Medical Journal last year by Therese Hesketh of University College London noted that two poorer, mainly rural provinces had the highest imbalances, with 140 boys for every 100 girls in the 1-to-4 age range. Dr Hesketh wrote: “Nothing can be done now to prevent this imminent generation of excess men.”
However, this report added that the national trend of gender imbalance had begun to slow since 2005, when it soared to 119 male births for every 100 female. One Chinese expert said that the rate had risen to 120.49 to 100 by the end of 2006, meaning that males born since 1980 would have outnumbered females born in the same period by 38 million at the end of 2008.
That China’s latest report continues to highlight the gravity of the situation serves to underscore how worried the leadership is over an issue that only a policy change, combined with nature and time, can solve. Some Chinese demographers hinted that it was time to shift from the family planning policy that has been credited with preventing 400 million births — which would, its backers claim, have swollen the population to unsustainable levels.
Abortion is legal and widely available. China bans tests to determine the gender of a foetus for non-medical reasons, but these are still carried out, mainly by underground clinics in rural areas. The law does not expressly prohibit or even define late-term termination of pregnancies.
Female infanticide is not uncommon, although rarely mentioned. Some families do not register the birth of daughters so that they can try legally for a son. In rural areas, farmers who have a daughter are now allowed to have a second child.
Despite these developments men in poverty-stricken regions will face the greatest difficulty in finding a wife after 2020, Wang Yuesheng, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said.
Mr Wang said: “The chance of getting married will be rare if a man is more than 40 years old in the countryside. They will be more dependent on social security as they age and have fewer household resources to rely on.”
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